Johannesburg, 1 October 2026 – The global economy is entering a period in which geopolitical fragmentation, energy security, technology investment and changing trade relationships are increasingly intertwined, creating both new risks and strategic opportunities for African economies, according to KPMG’s latest Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook.
The quarterly outlook, held on 24 September 2026, examined how interconnected global conflicts are influencing economic conditions and business decisions, with discussion spanning geopolitical developments, oil and energy markets, inflation, monetary policy and the accelerating investment in artificial intelligence (AI).
For Africa, the implications extend beyond the immediate effects of global volatility. As major economies increase investment in AI infrastructure, digital technologies, renewable energy and electric vehicles, demand for the minerals and resources required to support these industries is creating a potentially significant opportunity for the continent.
According to KPMG’s Global Economic and Geopolitical Outlook, the changing composition of global growth could have important implications for African economies. Investment is increasingly taking the lead over consumer spending as a driver of growth, particularly in AI infrastructure, data centres, digital technologies and the industries supporting the energy transition.
While these trends are supporting growth and investment in developed economies, they also have important implications for Africa. Many of the critical minerals required for electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and AI-related infrastructure are concentrated on the continent. As demand for these technologies continues to expand, demand for these minerals is likely to remain strong, supporting exports and attracting foreign direct investment into African economies.
From geopolitical risk to strategic resources
The shift towards a more fragmented global economy is changing the way businesses and governments think about supply chains, investment and strategic resources.
Rather than viewing geopolitical developments solely through the lens of risk, KPMG’s outlook highlights the need to consider how changing global relationships are reshaping where investment flows, where supply chains are located and which resources become strategically important.
For Africa, this could place greater attention on its role in global critical mineral supply chains.
The continent has significant deposits of minerals that are important to the energy transition and technology industries. The analysis of critical minerals notes that geopolitical risks, supply-chain stability, capital access, regulation and infrastructure are among the issues shaping investment decisions across the sector.
This creates a potential opportunity for African economies to move beyond being sources of raw materials and capture more value through processing, beneficiation, infrastructure development and participation in downstream supply chains.
The opportunity, however, is not automatic. The ability to attract sustainable investment will depend on factors including infrastructure, energy availability, regulatory certainty, skills, logistics and the capacity to develop reliable value chains.
AI is becoming an energy story
The global AI investment boom is also creating an unexpected connection between technology and energy. During the webcast, insights revealed that AI is increasingly becoming an electricity story, with the energy required to power data centres emerging as a potential determinant of where AI infrastructure can be developed at scale.
The International Energy Agency estimates that global data-centre electricity consumption could almost double from 2025 levels by 2030. This means access to reliable and affordable electricity will increasingly influence the geography of digital infrastructure and AI investment.
For Africa, this presents a dual challenge and opportunity.
Countries able to combine reliable energy, digital connectivity and access to strategic resources could position themselves to attract investment linked to data centres, digital infrastructure, manufacturing and technology-enabled industries. At the same time, persistent infrastructure gaps could constrain the continent’s ability to capture these opportunities.
Africa’s opportunity sits within a more complex global economy
The outlook comes against a backdrop of growing geopolitical and economic fragmentation. KPMG’s global analysis has highlighted how geopolitical developments are affecting supply chains, investment decisions, energy markets and the cost of doing business.
For African markets, this means global economic developments cannot be considered in isolation from the continent’s own structural opportunities.
Changing patterns of global investment could create greater demand for African commodities, infrastructure and energy. At the same time, more fragmented trade relationships could increase pressure on countries and businesses to diversify markets, strengthen regional supply chains and improve resilience. This makes Africa’s ability to build stronger intra-African trade and regional value chains increasingly important.
For businesses operating across the continent, the challenge will therefore be to navigate a world where geopolitical uncertainty is becoming a structural feature of the operating environment, while identifying where changing global investment patterns create new opportunities.
Positioning Africa for the next phase of global investment
Africa’s strategic importance in the global economy is likely to increasingly extend beyond its traditional role as a source of commodities.
The convergence of AI, energy transition, critical minerals and geopolitical competition creates the potential for the continent to play a more significant role in global supply chains and investment flows.
Realising that potential will require investment not only in extraction, but in the broader ecosystem needed to support competitive industries – including reliable energy, transport and digital infrastructure, skills development, processing capacity and predictable regulatory environments.
For African economies, the emerging global environment therefore presents a more complex picture than simply managing external shocks. It also raises the prospect of Africa becoming an increasingly important part of the infrastructure, technology and resource systems underpinning the next phase of global economic growth.
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